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中华乳腺病杂志(电子版) ›› 2022, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (06) : 327 -335. doi: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.1674-0807.2022.06.001

论著

浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的风险评估模型
袁思敏1, 王雪莹2, 谢湘莹3, 符德元2, 章佳新2,()   
  1. 1. 116000 大连医科大学研究生院;225000 扬州,江苏省苏北人民医院甲状腺乳腺外科
    2. 225000 扬州,江苏省苏北人民医院甲状腺乳腺外科
    3. 430060 武汉大学人民医院护理部
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-31 出版日期:2022-12-01
  • 通信作者: 章佳新
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(82072909)

Risk assessment model for sentinel lymph node and non-sentinel lymph node metastases in patients with invasive breast cancer

Simin Yuan1, Xueying Wang2, Xiangying Xie3, Deyuan Fu2, Jiaxin Zhang2,()   

  1. 1. Graduate School, Dalian Medical University, Dalian 116000, China; Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, North Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou 225000, China
    2. Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, North Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou 225000, China
    3. Department of Nursing, People’s Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430060, China
  • Received:2022-03-31 Published:2022-12-01
  • Corresponding author: Jiaxin Zhang
引用本文:

袁思敏, 王雪莹, 谢湘莹, 符德元, 章佳新. 浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的风险评估模型[J]. 中华乳腺病杂志(电子版), 2022, 16(06): 327-335.

Simin Yuan, Xueying Wang, Xiangying Xie, Deyuan Fu, Jiaxin Zhang. Risk assessment model for sentinel lymph node and non-sentinel lymph node metastases in patients with invasive breast cancer[J]. Chinese Journal of Breast Disease(Electronic Edition), 2022, 16(06): 327-335.

目的

探讨浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的危险因素,建立可视化的列线图模型,指导临床腋窝处理。

方法

回顾性分析2017—2020年就诊于江苏省苏北人民医院甲状腺乳腺外科经病理证实的497例浸润性乳腺癌患者。所有患者均行前哨淋巴结活组织检查。用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的危险因素。通过R(4.1.0)软件绘制列线图模型和受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线,并计算曲线下面积(AUC),通过rms包中的Calibrate函数来创建校准曲线,检验模型的预测效果。

结果

497例患者中,前哨淋巴结转移221例(44.5%),均行腋窝淋巴结清扫术(ALND),术后常规病理检查证实非前哨淋巴结转移141例。单因素分析表明,白蛋白与球蛋白比值(Z=-2.000,P=0.046)、外周血中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)(Z=-2.137,P=0.033)、组织学分级(Z=-5.168, P<0.001)、脉管内癌栓(χ2=114.010,P<0.001)、HER-2(χ2=3.989,P=0.046)、Ki-67(χ2=6.860,P=0.009)、肿块位置(χ2=72.593,P<0.001)与前哨淋巴结转移相关;多因素分析结果表明组织学分级(1级与3级比较:OR=3.167, 95%CI:1.201~8.356,P=0.002)、脉管内癌栓(OR=2.210, 95%CI:5.487~15.142,P<0.001)、肿块位置(外上与内上象限比较:OR=0.133,95%CI:0.063~0.281,P<0.001)是前哨淋巴结转移的独立预测因素。将221例行ALND的患者分为非前哨转移组及未转移组。单因素分析表明肿块大小(χ2=9.406,P=0.002)、外周血中性粒细胞计数(Z=-2.248,P=0.025)、组织学分级(Z=-3.270,P=0.001)及脉管内癌栓(χ2=12.959,P<0.001)与患者非前哨淋巴结转移相关;多因素分析表明肿块大小(OR=2.600, 95%CI:1.420~4.760,P=0.002)、脉管内癌栓(OR=2.968, 95%CI:1.640~5.369,P<0.001)及外周血中性粒细胞计数(OR=1.336, 95%CI:1.060~1.684,P=0.014)是非前哨淋巴结转移的独立预测因素。前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的ROC曲线显示:AUC面积分别为0.828(95%CI:0.793~0.865)及0.712(95%CI:0.642-0.782)。Calibration校准曲线的C-index依次为0.828和0.712,与实际结果有较好的一致性。

结论

该列线图模型能较好地预测前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移的概率,有利于临床腋窝的精细化处理。

Objective

To investigate the risk factors for sentinel lymph node and non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in patients with invasive breast cancer, establish a visual nomogram model and guide clinical axillary management.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed in 497 patients with pathologically confirmed invasive breast cancer in the Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, North Jiangsu People’s Hospital from 2017 to 2020. Sentinel lymph node biopsy is performed in all patients. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for sentinel and non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. The nomogram model and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were drawn by the R 4.1.0 software, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated, and the calibration curve was created by the Calibrate function in the rms package to test the predictive effect of the model.

Results

Among 497 patients, 221 (44.5%) had sentinel lymph node metastasis and they all underwent axillary lymph node dissection (ALND). Among them, 141 cases had non-sentinel lymph node metastasis confirmed by routine pathological examination after surgery. Univariate analysis showed that albumin-to-globulin ratio (Z=-2.000, P=0.046), peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (Z=-2.137, P=0.033), histological grade (Z=-5.168, P<0.001), intravascular cancer thrombus (χ2=114.010, P<0.001), HER-2 (χ2=3.989, P=0.046), Ki-67 (χ2=6.860, P=0.009), mass location (χ2=72.593, P<0.001) were related to sentinel lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis showed that histological grade (grade 3 vs grade 1: OR=3.167, 95%CI: 1.201-8.356, P=0.002), intravasculature cancer thrombus (OR=9.115, 95%CI: 5.487-15.142, P<0.001), and mass location (upper outer quadrant vs upper inner quadrant: OR=0.133, 95%CI: 0.063-0.618, P<0.001) were independent predictors of sentinel lymph node metastasis. The 221 patients receiving ALND were divided into non-sentinel node metastatic group and non-metastatic group. Univariate analysis showed that lump size (χ2=9.406, P=0.002), peripheral blood neutrophil count (Z=-2.248, P=0.025), histological grade (Z=-3.270, P=0.001) and intravascular cancer thrombus (χ2=12.959, P<0.001) were related to non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis showed that mass size (OR=2.600, 95%CI: 1.420-4.760, P=0.002), intravascular cancer thrombus (OR=2.968, 95%CI: 1.640-5.369, P<0.001) and peripheral blood neutrophil count (OR=1.336, 95%CI: 1.060-1.684, P=0.014) were independent predictors of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. The AUC of ROC curve was 0.828 (95%CI: 0.793-0.865) for sentinel lymph node and 0.712 (95%CI: 0.642-0.782) for non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. The C-index of the calibration curve was 0.828 for sentinel lymph node and 0.712 for non-sentinel lymph node metastasis, indicating high consistence with the actual results.

Conclusion

The nomogram model can predict the probability of sentinel and non-sentinel lymph node metastasis, providing guidance for precision axillary treatment in clinic.

表1 浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨及非前哨淋巴结转移危险因素多因素分析变量赋值表
表2 497例浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨淋巴结转移的单因素分析结果
临床病理特征 前哨淋巴结未转移(n=276) 前哨淋巴结转移(n=221) 检验值 P
年龄(岁,±s) 52.64±10.22 52.39±9.65 t=0.280 0.779
白蛋白/球蛋白[M(P25P75)] 1.72(1.56,1.97) 1.77(1.61,2.00) Z=-2.000 0.046
PLR[M(P25P75)] 128.79(105.41,164.09) 123.20(95.40,156.43) Z=-1.600 0.110
NLR[M(P25P75)] 2.37(1.77,3.07) 2.15(1.57,2.98) Z=-2.137 0.033
中性粒细胞计数[×109/L, M(P25P75)] 3.89(2.94,4.70) 3.72(2.83,4.58) Z=-1.215 0.225
淋巴细胞数目[×109/L, M(P25P75)] 1.62(1.32,2.03) 1.68(1.33,2.13) Z=-1.118 0.263
血小板数目(×109/L, ±s) 216.42±59.37 211.53±62.01 t=0.894 0.372
组织学分级[例(%)]        
  1级 30(10.9) 6(2.7) Z=-5.168 <0.001
  2级 111(40.2) 59(26.7)
  3级 135(48.9) 156(70.6)
脉管内癌栓[例(%)]        
  29(10.5) 121(54.8) χ2=114.010 <0.001
  247(89.5) 100(45.2)
肿块大小[例(%)]        
  ≤2 cm 177(64.1) 132(59.7) χ2=1.011 0.315
  >2 cm 99(35.9) 89(40.3)
ER[例(%)]        
  阴性 97(35.1) 89(40.3) χ2=1.377 0.241
  阳性 179(64.9) 132(59.7)
PR[例(%)]        
  阴性 135(48.9) 112(50.7) χ2=0.153 0.696
  阳性 141(51.1) 109(49.3)
HER-2[例(%)]        
  阴性 205(74.3) 146(66.1) χ2=3.989 0.046
  阳性 71(25.7) 75(33.9)
Ki-67[例(%)]        
  低表达 102(37.0) 57(25.8) χ2=6.860 0.009
  高表达 174(63.0) 164(74.2)
分子分型[例(%)]        
  luminal型 155(56.2) 102(46.2) χ2=5.600 0.061
  HER-2阳性型 70(25.4) 75(33.9)
  三阴型 51(18.4) 44(19.9)
肿块位置[例(%)]        
  外上象限 77(27.9) 143(64.7) χ2=72.593 <0.001
  外下象限 51(18.4) 30(13.6)
  内下象限 91(33.0) 35(15.8)
  内上象限 57(20.7) 13(5.9)
表3 497例浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨淋巴结转移的多因素分析结果
表4 221例浸润性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的单因素分析结果
临床病理特征 非前哨淋巴结未转移(n=80) 非前哨淋巴结转移(n=141) 检验值 P
年龄(岁,±s) 50.80±8.30 53.29±10.26 t=-1.854 0.065
白蛋白/球蛋白[M(P25P75)] 1.76(1.62,1.98) 1.80(1.61,2.01) Z=-0.486 0.627
PLR[M(P25P75)] 136.45(106.61,172.00) 125.36(99.79,158.65) Z=-1.417 0.156
NLR[M(P25P75)] 2.26(1.77,3.01) 2.37(1.66,3.09) Z=-0.726 0.468
中性粒细胞计数[×109/L, M(P25P75)] 3.69(2.72,4.43) 4.00(3.02,4.86) Z=-2.248 0.025
淋巴细胞数目[×109/L, M(P25P75)] 1.60(1.27,2.05) 1.61(1.32,2.12) Z=-1.158 0.247
血小板数目(×109/L, ±s) 223.83±60.91 211.26±60.12 t=1.486 0.139
组织学分级[例(%)]        
  1级 4(5.0) 2(1.4) Z=-3.270 0.001
  2级 30(37.5) 29(20.6)
  3级 46(57.5) 110(40.4)
脉管内癌栓[例(%)]        
  31(38.8) 90(63.8) χ2=12.959 <0.001
  49(61.2) 51(36.2)
肿块大小[例(%)]        
  ≤2 cm 54(67.5) 65(46.1) χ2=9.406 0.002
  >2 cm 26(32.5) 76(53.9)
ER[例(%)]        
  阴性 28(35.0) 61(43.3) χ2=1.449 0.229
  阳性 52(65.0) 80(56.7)
PR[例(%)]        
  阴性 34(42.5) 78(55.3) χ2=3.356 0.067
  阳性 46(57.5) 63(44.7)
HER-2[例(%)]        
  阴性 52(65.0) 94(66.7) χ2=0.063 0.801
  阳性 28(35.0) 47(33.3)
Ki-67[例(%)]        
  低表达 24(30.3) 33(23.4) χ2=1.283 0.257
  高表达 56(69.7) 108(76.6)
分子分型[例(%)]        
  luminal型 39(48.8) 63(44.7) χ2=1.068 0.586
  HER-2阳性型 28(35.0) 47(33.3)
  三阴型 13(16.2) 31(22.0)
肿块位置[例(%)]        
  外上象限 46(57.5) 97(68.8) χ2=4.052 0.256
  外下象限 15(18.8) 15(10.6)
  内下象限 13(16.2) 22(15.6)
  内上象限 6(7.5) 7(5.0)
表5 221例浸润性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的多因素分析结果
图1 497例浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨淋巴结转移的列线图模型
图2 221例浸润性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的列线图模型
图3 497例浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨淋巴结转移受试者操作特征曲线注:曲线下面积为0.828
图4 221例浸润性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的受试者操作特征曲线注:曲线下面积为0.712
图5 497例浸润性乳腺癌患者前哨淋巴结转移的Calibrate曲线注:当预测发生率与实际发生率完全一致,曲线恰好为对角线;当校准曲线位于对角线之上,预测发生率大于实际发生率;当校准曲线位于对角线之下,预测发生率小于实际发生率
图6 221例浸润性乳腺癌患者非前哨淋巴结转移的Calibrate曲线注:当预测发生率与实际发生率完全一致,曲线恰好为对角线;当校准曲线位于对角线之上,预测发生率大于实际发生率;当校准曲线位于对角线之下,预测发生率小于实际发生率
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